CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-01-18T18:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-01-18T18:09ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44032/-1
CME Note: Halo CME first seen to the East by STEREO A COR2 beginning at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, as well as by GOES CCOR-1 as a halo in later frames. This CME was initially covered by a routine scheduled downlink data gap in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 which began at 2026-01-18T18:00Z but LASCO data became fully available later. The source of this CME is a long duration X1.9 flare from Active Region 14341 (S15E20), which peaked at 2026-01-18T18:09Z, with some possible contribution from Active Region 14345 (S16E27). This flare is visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131 and the associated eruption is seen as a wide region of dimming and field line opening in SDO AIA 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284, as well as very high and large area post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 94, 304 and 193. Ejecta is seen in SDO AIA 193 and in STEREO A EUV 304 imagery (southwardly directed off the SE limb as seen from STEREO A). STEREO A 195 also sees it as a large opening of field lines close to the limb, around the equator. Arrival at L1: Characterized by a sharp amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from ~6nT at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to ~86nT at 2026-01-19T18:59Z. The solar wind data is likely contaminated due to a known issue with the ACE spacecraft during solar energetic particle events, however solar wind data returns around 2026-01-19T21:18Z measuring ~1000 km/s. Density increased from ~3 p/cc at 2026-01-19T18:55Z to 29 p/cc at 2026-01-19T19:02Z. Temperature observed an increase from ~65,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:15Z to ~900,000 K at 2026-01-19T21:23Z. A large southern coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on 2026-01-15 was located to the south and west of the eruptive source for CME: 2026-01-18T18:09Z (S15E20), and while no distinct coronal high speed stream signature was identified within this arrival signature the location and size of the coronal hole may likely have influenced this CME as it traveled to and arrived at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-19T18:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.67
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-19T20:59Z (-4.99h, +3.69h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 66.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
*** LASCO *** Time of Launch: 2026/01/18 17:55Z Plane of Sky 1: 21:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 22:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NW Direction POS Difference: 1:20 POS Midpoint: 21:40Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 3:45 Numeric View/Impact Type: +2 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.22 Travel Time: ~7.22 * 3:45 = 27:04 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-19T20:59Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 5/5 Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj Forecast Creation Time: 2026/01/19 00:15ZLead Time: 18.60 hour(s)
Difference: -2.07 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2026-01-19T00:19Z
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